What are your chances of getting REKT this month?
This visualization reveals the monthly probability of experiencing at least one extreme Bitcoin price crash (daily returns below the 1st percentile). Based on a comprehensive analysis of historical BTC price patterns using a Poisson-Gamma Bayesian model with seasonal adjustments.
Click on any month to see historical crash events with detailed news & analysis.
Current Month Crash Risk Temperature
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Low Risk
High Risk
Next 90 Days
Next 30 Days
Next 14 Days
Next 7 Days
Next 1 Day
Historical Risk Timeline
2013
2025
2025: Bitcoin's Risk Profile
Analyzing complete Bitcoin price history for statistical patterns...
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Bitcoin Sentiment Analysis
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METHODOLOGY:
Based on comprehensive Bitcoin price data. Forecast period:
30
days.
The odds of an extreme Bitcoin price crash in the next 30 days, based on historical chaos and market mayhem.
Biggest Historical Crash
No historical crashes
No significant historical crash data available for this month.
Model Prediction vs Actual Crashes
Bitcoin Price
Crash Probability
Actual Crashes
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